Tehran’s call for a guaranteed ceasefire to end the conflict has increased the odds for a ceasefire by April 7 to 8.5% YES, up from 8% yesterday. The chance of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 has dropped to 10.5% YES, down from 14%.
The ceasefire market saw minor shifts, with most activity in longer-term sub-markets. April 30 rose to 39.5% YES, suggesting traders expect diplomatic progress later in the month. April 15 increased to 19.5% YES. The largest odds jump is between April 15 and April 30, indicating a potential mid-April catalyst.
In the regime fall market, odds for a June 30 collapse decreased. Tehran’s negotiation stance suggests the regime remains stable enough for diplomacy, lowering the chance of an imminent collapse. The June 30 market is at 10.5% YES, showing traders’ doubts about immediate regime change.
USDC traded in the ceasefire markets reached $1,378,713 in the past 24 hours. The largest move was a 4-point spike in the April 30 market, likely due to diplomatic discussions. With $32,218 needed to shift the April 7 market by 5 points, it’s resistant to small trades but open to larger strategic changes.
Tehran’s ceasefire demand hints at a diplomatic breakthrough, but without concrete steps, it remains speculative. At 8¢, a YES share for a ceasefire by April 7 pays $1 if it resolves — a 12.5x return. This bet requires belief in an imminent formal announcement within six days.
Watch for involvement from Oman or Qatar as intermediaries, and statements from CENTCOM or the UN Secretary General, which could indicate real progress toward a resolution.
Markets Impacted
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