## Market Snapshot
The market for whether Donald Trump will announce the lifting of the US blockade on the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026, is currently priced at 39.5% YES, down from 44% 24 hours ago. The market for whether Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal by the end of April remains uncertain.
## Key Takeaways
– The successful navigation of two Iranian tankers suggests ongoing challenges to the US blockade, impacting policy change expectations. – Market pricing indicates a decreased likelihood of a Trump announcement lifting the blockade before May 31. – The evasion of the blockade suggests continued disruption in Strait of Hormuz traffic, affecting market sentiment on normalization.
## Article Body
Two Iranian oil tankers have successfully bypassed the US naval blockade imposed on Iranian ports, carrying approximately four million barrels of oil to Asia. This incident follows the US-Israel attack on Iran that initiated the ongoing conflict, resulting in Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and subsequent US blockade. Despite the blockade’s intent to restrict Iran’s oil revenue, the evasion of these tankers highlights Tehran’s ability to circumvent US naval efforts. The situation remains tense with mutual ship seizures between the US and Iran, as peace talks continue to stall.
## Market Interpretation
The successful evasion of the US blockade by Iranian tankers appears supportive of a NO outcome in markets assessing whether Donald Trump will announce the lifting of the blockade by May 31. This development is consistent with scenarios where the blockade remains in effect, reflecting moderate impact on market expectations. Additionally, the disruption in Strait of Hormuz traffic suggests a lower probability of traffic normalization, influencing related market outcomes.
## What to Watch
Key developments to monitor include any statements from Donald Trump or CENTCOM regarding the blockade status, as well as potential shifts in Iranian tactics to evade naval restrictions. The ongoing peace talks and their outcomes will play a crucial role in shaping future market movements. Additionally, watch for any changes in the dynamics of ship seizures and oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, as these could significantly influence market perceptions.
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